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Jun 17, 2019

MASCC/ISOO Annual Meeting on Supportive Care in Cancer

01 - ARE WE BETTER A DECADE LATER IN THE ACCURACY OF SURVIVAL PREDICTION BY PALLIATIVE RADIATION ONCOLOGISTS?

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palliative care

clinician predicted survival

survival prediction

prognosis

Abstract

Abstract

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Keywords

palliative care

clinician predicted survival

survival prediction

prognosis

Abstract

Introduction: Clinician-predicted survival (CPS) is a vital aspect of palliative care, allowing for determination of treatment intent and setting best suited to the patient. The primary objective was to assess CPS accuracy in cancer patients referred to the Rapid Response Radiotherapy Program (RRRP) for palliative radiotherapy. Methods: From August 2014-March 2017, CPS was provided by one of four radiation oncologists. Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), primary cancer, site of metastases, and date of death was obtained. Mean difference between actual survival (AS) and CPS was used to determine the accuracy of predictions. Results: 172 patients were included for analysis. Survival was overestimated in most patients (n=135, 78.5%) by 19.0 weeks on average (Table 1). KPS (p=0.2), primary cancer site (p=0.08), and site of metastases were not significantly related to CPS accuracy (Table 2). Gender was significantly related to CPS accuracy upon multivariable analysis (p=0.04), but not after excluding prostate and breast cancer patients (p=0.2). The mean difference between AS and CPS did not significantly change over subsequent visits (p=0.5) (Table 3). CPS accuracy was significantly lower compared to the previous RRRP study (p=0.04). Conclusions: The survival estimates provided by radiation oncologists are inaccurate and overestimated. Further research should aim to validate prognostic models to improve accuracy.

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© Copyright 2019 Morressier GmbH.
All rights reserved.