Background and Goal of Study:
Reliable risk models to predict mortality following cardiac surgery are the matter of debate. The ACS NSQIP risk calculator is recommended by ESC /ESA for non-cardiac surgery assessment to predict hospital mortality and complications. Euroscore II is a recognized tool to estimate the risk after cardiac surgery.
The study aim was to evaluate the value of ACS NSQIP calculator for prediction of hospital death and other complications in adult cardiac surgery patient’s population. Additionally, its predictive value was compare to Euroscore II.
Materials and Methods:
The medical records of 200 patients who underwent cardiac surgery between 1.05-30.11/2017 at University Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The collected data were compared with the ACS NSQIP calculated risk of death and serious complications. The statistical analysis was carried out using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, where p > 0,05 indicates credibility of calculations. The ACS NSQIP predicted risk of death was compared with Euroscore II using Spearman rank correlation test.
Results and Discussion:
Serious complications occurred in 20,5% of studied patients. 30-days mortality rate was 2%. The ACS NSQIP risk calculator significantly predicted risk of death (p=0,88). The ACS NSQIP can also be useful in assessing the risk of pneumonia (p=0,27), cardiac complications (p=0,1) and hospital readmission (p=0,2). The predicted risk of death by ACS NSQIP calculator significantly correlated with the Euro Score II (p < 0,05).
Conclusion:
The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator is a useful tool to predict perioperative risk of death after cardiac surgery. Its value for prediction of other complications needs further elucidation.
References:
1. Liu Y, Cohen ME, Hall BL et al.; Evaluation and Enhancement of Calibration in the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator; J Am Coll Surg. 2016 Aug;223(2):231-9

09 / The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in estimation of the perioperative death and serious complications after cardiac surgery - retrospective experience of one center