Terrestrial landscapes are major sources of phosphorus and sediment to the nearshore environment, and watershed characteristics may be used to identify and prioritize those watersheds ideal for restoration activities protecting nearshore water quality. We used novel landscape information describing forest cover change, along with forest census data and land cover data (e.g., agriculture and urban) to predict springtime total phosphorus and turbidity in streams draining to Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The resulting models rank watersheds based on landscape conditions relative to the amount of phosphorus or turbidity exported.  Phosphorus models differed in the two lakes, but relevant watershed parameters included: proportions of persisting forest, disturbed forest, agricultural and urban land; ecoregion; and watershed storage. The turbidity models included a similar list of watershed parameters: proportions of persisting forest, recently disturbed forest, agricultural and urban land; ecoregion; and the proportion of softwood forest. Importantly, we applied our models to nongaged basins to estimate water quality and prioritize restoration activities across all Lake Superior and Lake Michigan watersheds. Prioritizing watersheds for restoration aids effective management of the Great Lakes and facilitates the efficient use of limited restoration funds and improved nearshore water quality. (Research funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative.)

Terrestrial sources of phosphorus and turbidity to Lake Superior and Lake Michigan can be identified using forest disturbance and landscape metrics

248th National Meeting (2014)

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