Background & Aims: A systematic review of 23 population-based studies has revealed a range of risk factors for the onset of fibromyalgia (FM) and chronic widespread pain. This study aimed to identify which variables, out of many, predict new onset FM in a large population-based sample and compare them with the predictors of new onset irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS).

Methods: The Dutch prospective, population-based Lifelines study screened 152,180 participants at baseline using many physical, psychological and social variables. After excluding participants with pre-existing disorders, we identified new onsets of FM, IBS & CFS over the subsequent 3 years. We assessed the baseline predictors of each disorder using penalised logistic regression .

Results: New onset FM was reported by 692 participants (90% were female);  1,595  reported new IBS (75% female) and  296 CFS (52.7% female).  There were 19 predictors of FM, 9 of these also predicted IBS and/or CFS, including female sex, gastro-intestinal disorders, sleep disturbance, chronic health difficulties, somatization, negative health perception. Predictors unique to FM included: IBS and musculoskeletal disorders at baseline, taking medication for upper gastrointestinal disorders, thyroid and ophthalmic disorders, no recent GP contacts, raised BMI and low alcohol consumption.   

Conclusions: The predictors of new onset self-reported FM in this study concurred mostly with previously reports. It is unlikely that they relate to a single path into FM, rather there may be several paths, some are common to other syndromes and some are unique to FM.

THE RISK FACTORS FOR NEW ONSETS OF FIBROMYALGIA: THE LIFELINES STUDY