Objective: To develop prognosis prediction models for COVID-19 patients attending an emergency department (ED) based on initial chest X-ray (CXR), demographics, clinical and laboratory parameters. 
Methods: All symptomatic confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital ED between February 24th and April 24th 2020 were recruited. CXR features, clinical and laboratory variables and CXR abnormality indices extracted by a convolutional neural network (CNN) diagnostic tool were considered potential predictors on this first visit. The most serious individual outcome defined the severity level: home discharge or hospitalization ≤ 3 days, hospital stay >3 days and intensive care requirement or death. Severity and in-hospital mortality multivariable prediction models were developed and internally validated. The Youden index was used for model selection.
Results: A total of 440 patients were enrolled (median 64 years; 55.9% male); 13.6% patients were discharged, 64% hospitalized, 6.6% required intensive care and 15.7% died. The severity prediction model included SatO2/FiO2, age, C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocyte count, extent score of lung involvement on CXR (ExtScoreCXR), lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer level and platelets count, with AUC-ROC=0.94 and AUC-PRC=0.88. The mortality prediction model included age, SatO2/FiO2, CRP, LDH, CXR extent score, lymphocyte count and D-dimer level, with an AUC-ROC=0.97 and AUC-PRC=0.78. The addition of CXR CNN-based indices slightly improved the predictive metrics for mortality with AUC-ROC=0.97 and AUC-PRC=0.83.
Conclusion: The developed and internally validated severity and mortality prediction models should be further validated as triage tools for COVID-19 patients at different ED.

DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERITY AND MORTALITY PREDICTION MODELS FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS AT EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT INCLUDING THE CHEST X-RAY

The new EuSoMII Annual Meeting 2020 is a very nice live format with hosts and moderators in live video streaming  plus speakers connected remotely from Europe and US. The Program includes a morning session with Didactic Lectures and the possibility to do an examination at the end. A great afternoon session will follow: 2 great European speakers  and a Joint Session with our US partner  SIIM (Society for Imaging Informatics in Medicine). [Visit the Event Page](https://www.eusomii.org/events/eusomii-annual-meeting-2020/https://www.eusomii.org/events/eusomii-annual-meeting-2020/#:~:text=The%20new%20EuSoMII%20Annual%20Meeting,an%20examination%20at%20the%20end.)

[Introduction of the speakers](https://drive.google.com/file/d/12c7ObMM72HgA6TYZ1j8NWTqCcHumXurG/view?usp=sharing)

Sponsors:
[SECTRA PLATINUM EXCLUSIVE](https://medical.sectra.com/solutionarea/ai-medical-imaging/) | [QUIBIM Platinum](https://quibim.com/) | [PHILIPS Platinum](https://www.philips.com/global) | [ROBOVISION Platinum](https://robovision.ai/) | [BRACCO Imaging GOLD](https://www.braccoimaging.com/) | [Contextflow Silver](https://contextflow.com/) | [TeraRecon Silver](https://www.terarecon.com/) | [InferVISION](https://global.infervision.com/)