Biofuel mandates in several world regions are spurring a growing interest in the future bioenergy potential. Several studies have modelled the global availability of biomass from non-food sources in coming decades, with widely divergent results. Some of these efforts have relied on implausible assumptions, or assumptions that would allow environmentally unsustainable practices. Here, we review the methodology in a number of key studies projecting biomass potential in 2050. After identifying literature-supported values for main assumptions, we apply correction factors to these modelling results. We estimate that, had reasonable assumptions been incorporated in existing models, the maximum potential of global biomass in 2050 would be about 100 EJ yr-1. Accounting for conversion losses to biofuel, electricity and heating (with allowance for improved technology), this would supply ~78 EJ yr-1 of final energy, or about 8% of expected total energy demand. An accurate understanding of the future potential of bioenergy is essential to developing realistic policy goals that promote environmentally and socially sustainable energy production.

Reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

245th National Meeting (2013)

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