The World Agriculture report published in 2012 predicts a growth of 1.6% in grain yield per year is necessary to cover the global demand by 2050. In large parts of the global agricultural regions, the current trends are off track due to increasingly unsuitable climate. Large as well as small holder farmers in East Africa have been experiencing an extreme variability in their annual yield in both maize and wheat in the recent past. During good years, the commodity price crumbles due to an overproduction, whereas a bad yield leaves the farmer fearing for his survival.  Using NOAA's Africa Rainfall Climate Data, version 2 (ARC2) reaching back to 1983 at 10km resolution (distributed by the International Research Institute for Society and Climate (IRI)) we developed drought insurance in collaboration with Syngenta Crop Protection AG and the Syngenta Foundation as a first step for weather protection for farmers. We developed a model to project the probability of a destructive drought hitting individual farmers. The climate in this region has changed drastically during the last 15-20 years. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITC) that brings two rainy seasons to this region has shifted its pattern by approximately 13 days and the intensity has changed. We provide the farmers with risk advice, allowing them to plant at the time of the lowest risk. In addition, we hedge them against remaining weather damages. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data provided by NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites is used to verify and improve the ARC2 high-temporal resolution observations to a 250 -1000m resolution.  Farmers using this protection and advice have been able to increase their average yield by 15% in the last 5 years � during a time where the general trend for these regions has been declining.

Minimizing yield loss due to weather perils by adjusting the planting season using ARC2 and MODIS

248th National Meeting (2014)

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