Population and income growth will drive food demand in the coming decades; nearly 80 percent more meat, 52 percent more cereals, and 40 percent more roots and tubers will need to be produced between 2005 and 2050, at likely higher food prices and with adverse consequences for the world's poor and vulnerable populations. Climate change is a significant contributor to the projected higher prices, reducing cereal yields by 10-25 percent by 2050, compared with a no-climate change scenario. Addressing the challenges of climate change, rising long-term food prices, and poor progress in improving food security will require increased food production without further damage to the environment. Accelerated investments in agricultural research and development will be crucial to supporting food production growth, but prioritization of investments across potential agricultural technologies is needed. This study used a combination of spatially disaggregated crop models linked to economic models to explore the impacts on agricultural productivity and global food markets and food security of eleven alternative agricultural technologies for maize, rice, and wheat, the world's key staple crops. We find that no-till farming, heat-tolerant crops, crop protection, nitrogen-use efficiency, and precision agriculture showed the most promise for increasing crop yields for the three crops (maize, wheat and rice) studied. Other technologies also have important contributions. However, no single solution examined was shown to work best for all regions. Instead the results underscore the need to target particular technologies to the specific agricultural needs and opportunities of each region and country.

Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies

248th National Meeting (2014)

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