The recent growth in domestic feedstocks available for the chemical manufacturing industry has spurred a new wave of chemical industry investments in the United States. With changes in feedstock costs, new technologies may become cost-competitive with traditional manufacturing routes.  Because of interconnected material flows throughout many parts of the chemical manufacturing industry, it is necessary to understand the impact of new technologies in the context of the industry as a whole. A network model of the 2012 United States petrochemical industry is used to analyze the effect of new technologies on the industry’s structure. The analysis is illustrated with a case study of a new methane-to-aromatics process. First, the relationship between process utilization and production cost of the new process is shown. Then, changes in the model’s optimal technologies and chemical shadow prices are used to determine the extent of ancillary effects caused by introduction of the new technology. Finally, it is shown how selectivity of aromatic products from the new process is related to the cost-point when the process is accepted as part of the model’s prediction of optimal industry structure. As the United States chemical industry continues to evolve, the framework presented here can be used to identify primary and secondary impacts on chemical industry structure when new technologies are introduced.<br/>

Impact of new technologies and chemical manufacturing routes on the petrochemical industry in the United States

251st National Meeting (2016)

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