Water pollution is a global challenge that threatens human and ecosystem health, as well as economic growth and social welfare. Climate change may further exacerbate water quality issues across the globe. In this study, we introduce an analytic framework to understand the implications for water quantity and quality from the combined effects of climate change and other socioeconomic drivers (e.g. economic activities, agricultural production, land use change and water use). This framework is composed of an integrated assessment model (Global Change Assessment Model -- GCAM), Earth System Model projections of future climate, and a regional water quality model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool -- SWAT). Using GCAM, we first estimate the changes in land cover and water consumption for multiple crops, both irrigated and rainfed, due to changes in climate, choice of irrigation technology (dripping vs. sprinkler), and the endogenous effects of changes in trade patterns due to spatially distinct changes in yields under a changing climate. We then use SWAT to simulate the implications of these changes on water quality (e.g. nutrients, hypoxia, pesticide and organic matter) at the watershed scale.  Specifically, we will demonstrate the capability of the analytic framework in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), US Midwest and in watersheds in the Northeastern US. The UMRB is a major source of nutrient fluxes into the Gulf of Mexico, and has undergone cropland expansion to meet human needs of food and energy. In this basin, we assess how future climate change, in conjunction with land use shifts, will impact nutrients fluxes and potentially influence extend of the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. As the National Climate Assessment projects intensification of heavy precipitation events in the Northeastern US, we also apply the framework to simulate responses of organic matter (a monitored Disinfection Byproducts Precursor – DBP) and other water quality parameters to future climate change and water management.  Our approach stresses multi-dimensional evaluation of the effects of climate change on water quality and focuses on decision-relevant scales that enhance utility of modeling for decision-makers. Our effort synergizes data (e.g. EPA, NASA, USDA, and USGS) and utilizes models (e.g. EPA, DOE, and USDA) and resources from multiple agencies.

Modeling regional water quality impacts of global climate change and adaptation strategies

2019 Fall National Meeting

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