Two major global policy goals are to improve air quality and mitigate climate change. To understand air quality and climatic effects of various mitigation tactics, we analyzed three modeled future scenarios: SSP370, which assumes only weak policy controls on climate and air quality; lowNTCF, which imposes strong measures to improve air quality by reducing emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), but maintains high levels of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGGs); and lowNTCFCH4, which reduces both NTCFs and methane. We project significant air quality benefits in lowNTCF versus the baseline SSP370, with reductions in global mean surface particulates and ozone. The lowNTCF scenario also leads to a short-term increase in global mean temperatures by mid-century compared to SSP370, with the strongest warming occurring in the Arctic. Compared to both other runs, lowNTCFCH4 reduces surface temperature and improves air quality: ozone and particulate levels see further reduction, and global mean temperature is 0.4 K lower than SSP370 in 2100. This work confirms prior studies indicating that NTCF mitigation without simultaneous WMGG mitigation can lead to short-term global temperature increases, and reinforces methane’s importance as an ozone precursor and global warming mitigation target.

Effects of climate change and air quality policy on air pollutant concentrations and climate in the GFDL-ESM4.1 climate model

ACS Spring Meeting 2021

The official archive and repository for all ACS Meetings & Expositions abstracts and select posters or presentations.