Pipeline operators face multiple challenges in executing both capital and operational projects. Decision making analysis could assert a framework in devising an optimum solution to such multi-parameter decision challenges. A favorable option would be the one with the least amount of cost and the highest benefit. However, there could exist multiple constraints in ensuring the safety and reliability of pipelines for the given scenario that add complications to operation regimes. Addressing the challenge of arriving at an optimum decision for a multi-parameter problem is the core discussion of this paper. This includes comparing potential solution scenarios in terms of costs, benefits, risks, and utility. Risk estimation of every scenario captures a safety measure (e.g. probability of failure or factor of safety) along with the associated consequences. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) investigates the gain in monetary values in comparison to the cost of exercising the scenario. While utility measures the decision maker’s behavior/preference (e.g. risk-averse, -neutral, or -prone). The new-look herein is in balancing the parameters within conflicting objective functions (i.e. costs as a function of utility and risk). Optimization is based on the presumption of reducing the costs of the pipeline operation and maintenance or maximizing its benefits. To analyze the decision making under uncertainty, a balance of the costs of different parameters becomes significant for a decision-maker. The trade-off between cost and benefit in any options would be quantified based on the level of risk recipient of the decision-maker. This level of risk aversion by the pipeline operators could be shown in risk and reliability targets. Moreover, this paper introduces a new concept for the pipeline industry in terms of setting safety targets constraint as a function of the Life Quality Index (LQI). LQI provides a rationale for determining the acceptability of decisions especially the ones involving life safety risks.


Into Multi-Parameter Decision Making Scenarios: A New Look at Optimizing Utility Functions

Division / Sponsors: 
Pipeline Systems Division

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/IPC/IPC2020/volume/84447

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