Sensor data predictions could significantly improve the accuracy and effectiveness of modern control systems; however, existing machine learning and advanced statistical techniques to forecast time series data require significant computational resources which is not ideal for real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting technique called Compact Form Dynamic Linearization Model-Free Prediction (CFDL-MFP) which is derived from the existing model-free adaptive control framework. This approach enables near real-time forecasts of seconds worth of time-series data due to its basis as an optimal control problem. The performance of the CFDL-MFP algorithm was evaluated using four real datasets including: force sensor readings from surgical needle, ECG measurements for heart rate, and atmospheric temperature and Nile water level recordings. On average, the forecast accuracy of CFDL-MFP was 28% better than the benchmark Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) algorithm. The maximum computation time of CFDL-MFP was 49.1ms which was 170 times faster than ARIMA. Forecasts were best for deterministic data patterns, such as the ECG data, with a minimum average root mean squared error of (0.2±0.2).


A Novel Approach to Time Series Forecasting Using Model-Free Adaptive Control Framework

Division / Sponsors: 
Dynamic Systems & Control (DSCD)

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/DSCC/DSCC2020/volume/84270

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