Criminal science publishing gangs – also known as “paper mills” – contaminate the scientific literature with fake publications (FPs) which are of sufficient quality to pass peer-review. Because FPs are on the rise in an unprecedented manner, we carried out a bibliographical /statistical analysis to estimate their number and the associate revenues of the paper-mill business model. First, we scanned the 149 publications from 2017-2021 in the journal RESTORATIVE NEUROLOGY AND NEUROSCIENCE for tell tails of fake and identified an embarrassing 43 “suspect” FPs (28.7%). This prompted us to collect questionnaires from all corresponding authors to calculate a fake-factor (FF) which identified 23 (15.3%) “probable” FPs. Next, we screened a random mix of 3,500 publications from 35 basic and clinical neuroscience journals and identified 376 “suspects” (10.7%). When extrapolating to all “pubmed” publications (6.27 Mio/5 yrs), we estimated 450.000 medical FPs and 1.4 Mio FPs for all 14 Mio. science/technology publications (14 Mio.; Web of Science). Therefore, all of us in search of generating true knowledge – and not generating fiction – the impact of FPs on the permanent scientific record can no longer be ignored.
The FP business is an attractive commercial opportunity for paper mills. Assuming FP authors pay 5.000 EUR, the global FP business model revenue in 5 years amounts to 5-7 billion EUR (“suspected”/”probable” FPs), i.e. up to 1.0-1.4 billion revenue annually. This magnitude of the knowledge contamination is frightening and of growing concern. Unless all stakeholders counter this massive attack to safeguard public´s trust in, and reputation of, science integrity, this knowledge contamination will have a (delayed) ripple effect on global public health, science, technological and economic development, and the publishing field thereof. Stakeholders at all levels are called to action: journal editors, reviewers, science publishers, national / regional governments, administration bodies, funding agencies, and employers. It is time not only to re-think the incentives and rewards of scientists and publishers, but we should immediately and decisively stop the business model of criminal science publishing gangs, filtering out fraud papers at the pre-publication stage, and retracting FPs from the permanent scientific record.
It may be a bitter pill to swallow to take swift global action, but it is worth the pain to restore the “health” of the scientific record and to prevent the erosion of trust in science. All nations depend on the truth of knowledge laid down in the permanent scientific record. No one will lose face by facing this new and fundamental problem. Science and “true love” have two things in common: both are infatuated by passion, and both rely on trust. If trust is lost, it is very hard to go back.

Paper Mills: global Knowledge Contamination by industrial-style Fake Science Publishing

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The Future of the Permanent Record