Supply chain disruption due to the failure of infrastructure has been a great challenge worldwide as reported by FEMA (2017) and Fuller (2011). Transportation besides other various types of infrastructure, such as electrical power, water supply, and communications are very critical to maintaining a continuous performance of a supply chain. The globally interconnected nature of supply chains increases the risk of failure including amplifying potential consequences.&nbsp;Supply chains are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, due primarily to the possible damage to the supporting infrastructure. The destructive flooding and high winds that accompany hurricanes often cause closure of ports and airports, closed roads, power outages, water shortages, and communication loss. Disruptions propagate through the supply chains causing harm to some physical parts of the supply chain and chaos to the flow of materials and information. The consequences of damage to the supply chain reach beyond the local origin of a given supply chain.&nbsp;This work aims to achieve an adequate understanding of the complex interaction between supply chain components and supporting infrastructure – under disruptive conditions and additionally under normal conditions under uncertain conditions. This work provides a quantitative assessment of supply chain resilience to characterize the impact of failure of infrastructure that threatens supply chains due to potential disruption by natural hazards.&nbsp;The work proposes a discrete event simulation as a method to predict supply chain performance under normal conditions at the facility level. Considerations are made for when the facility can maintain the continuity of its performance under uncertainty and under disruptive scenarios. The model shows the propogation of the risk of delay and failure in the supply chain. The focus is directed toward risks from both (1) the reliability of infrastructure affecting materials necessary to produce a final product and (2) infrastructure failures that support the transportation of materials due to the occurrence of natural hazards such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. The different infrastructure types supporting the supply chain are interdependent. Bayesian network analysis has been used to capture the dependency among the different types of infrastructure and to reflect the impact of the dependency on supply chain performance. The supply chain performance under different scenarios is used as a resilience measure. The supply chain performance is defined through the fulfillment rate. &nbsp;The case study is inspired by an investigation conducted at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) about the aftermath of the 2017 Hurricane Maria. Results were used to examine potential mitigation plans to reduce the impact of infrastructure disruption on the supply chain to overcome the possible risks associated with infrastructure failure.

Resilience Assessment in Discrete Event Simulation of Supply- Chains and Supporting Infrastructure

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/JRC/JRC2021/volume/84775

2021 Joint Rail Conference (JRC2021)

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