In this article, we use an experimental approach to explore the capability of speculative fiction to predict future realized technologies. We review a large set of speculative technologies as introduced in speculative fiction to determine if the technologies were subsequently realized. Additionally, we explore the time between the speculated introduction and actual realization. Our data set for analysis is built from the ‘Technovelgy’ database of speculative technologies. A realization assessment methodology is created that includes detailed rubrics to rate and quantify the predictability or realizability of speculative technologies. Realization assessments are performed by three independent raters for each entry. An inter-rater agreement analysis is performed to validate the rating method. Based on the data set of 3095 speculated technologies, 45% were labeled as ‘realized’ by at least one rater. &nbsp;A moderate overall agreement with a Fleiss’ Kappa of 0.60 was reached by all raters. The average time to realization of realized technologies is approximately 45 years with a standard deviation of approximately 34 years. We observed patterns in the realization of speculative technologies and analyzed the underlying reasons preventing the technologies from realization. We conclude that speculative fiction predicts future technologies to such a degree that the introduction of speculative technology can be used as an input to designer decision making.

Quantifying the Predictive Abilities of Speculative Fiction: A Feasibility Study

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/IDETC-CIE/IDETC-CIE2021/volume/85369

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