<p>Aimar is a high-resolution metocean forecast model, which provides 24/7 results for the Brazilian Coast. The model integrates global model&nbsp;boundary conditions and detailed coastal models, specially for complex geometry areas near ports and major coastal cities. Along with this modern ocean hydrodynamics computational infrastructure, meteorological model TWC data is update in IBM Cloud ETC, providing results via Application Program Interfaces. The aim of this paper is to assess the&nbsp;forecast reliability and&nbsp;to present model data compared to in-situ measurements under high energy weather events. Mean wind speed/direction and gusts were investigate during the occurence of and extratropical cyclone near Brazilian coast. Results show that Aimar results could predict the high energy winds and maximum gusts in the period 5 days before the ocurrence, while NCEP's&nbsp;Global Forecast System Ensemble (GFSE) predicted 2-3 days before, for the region of Santos city, in the Sao Paulo State. Signigicant Wave heights were assessed by comparing Aimar results with NOAA Wave Watch III data for Rio de Janeiro coast. Results show that Aimar wave forecasts properly represents the wave propagation for complex geometry coasts. Statistical parameters were calculated for a period of 15 daily forecast simulations, in 2019. Model agreement with in situ data were considered Good and Excelent, according to statistical parameters R, RMAE and Skill (Van Rijn et al, 2003; Allen et. al, 2011). These results show that high-resolution coastal forecast models can be applied to increase the efficiency&nbsp;and decrease the risks for marine operations and engineering works.</p>

Assessment of Wind and Wave High-Resolution Forecasts During High-Energy Weather Events in the Brazilian Coast

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/OMAE/OMAE2021/volume/85116

OMAE 2021

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