<p>The recent emergence of model-based systems engineering and design has motivated the need to validate predictive models used in support of engineering decision making. This in turn has led to a substantial research activity and many papers on the subject. The purpose here is to present a validation paradox, explain the paradox and introduce an alternative approach to model validation.&nbsp; The paradox involves a gambler who is about to place bets when an engineer presents a model that predicts the outcomes of the bets maximally wrong every time, but in a way that enables the gambler to make winning decisions every time.&nbsp; Thus, the current approach to validation deems the model to be invalid, suggesting it shouldn't be used while its use would be of great value to the gambler.&nbsp; It is argued that a model that enables perfect decision making should not be summarily discarded.&nbsp; An alternative validation procedure is presented, which is consistent with classical decision theory and value-of-information theory. It suggests a number of fundamental weaknesses in the current approach to model validation and offers an approach to model evaluation that determines the value that the model brings to the decision, and that provides additional insight into the question of model validity.</p>

Is Model Validation Valid?

Paper Proceedings: https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/VVS/VVS2021/volume/84782

ASME 2021 Verification and Validation (VVS2021)

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