Assessing the resilience of urban drainage systems requires the consideration of future threats that will disrupt the system performance and trigger urban flooding failures. However, most existing resilience assessments of urban drainage systems rarely consider the uncertainties from future urban redevelopment and climate change, which leads to the underestimation of future disturbances toward system performance. 

This paper fills in the gap of assessing the combined and relative impacts of future urban redevelopment and climate change on flooding resilience in the context of a highly urban-infilled catchment severed by an urban drainage system in Salt Lake City, Utah, the USA. Impact comparison shows that imperious urban surface induces more effects on the system performance curves by magnifying the maximum failure level, lengthening the recovery duration, and aggravating the flooding severity than climatic rainfall changes. A nonlinear logarithm resilience correlation is found, and this finding shows that flooding resilience is more sensitive to the effects induced by future urban redevelopment than climate change, which indicates the system is more likely to fail under impervious cover changes in the case study. This research work predicts the system response to the uncertainties induced by climate change and urban redevelopment, which is helpful for improving the understanding of impacts analysis and contributing to the advancement of resilient urban drainage systems in changing environments.

Effects of Nonstationarity in Urban Land Cover and Rainfall on Historical Urban Flooding in a Semi-Arid Catchment

Created in 1999, the Environmental & Water Resources Institute (EWRI) is the recognized leader within ASCE for the integration of technical expertise and public policy in the planning, design, construction, and operation of environmentally sound and sustainable infrastructure impacting air, land and water resources.

[Paper Proceedings](https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483466)

Conference DOI: https://doi.org/10.26226/m.6329c39b68fb0e00131f77d2