We develop a probabilistic framework for the estimation of real losses in the entire water distribution network (WDN) of the city of Patras in western Greece (> 1000 km of total length), which allows for uncertainty quantification of the obtained estimates, and links them to the network’s specific characteristics, and inlet/operating pressures.

The suggested framework is based on a robust and easy to implement, non-parametric, statistical methodology for minimum night flow (MNF) estimation, based on flow-pressure measurements (Serafeim et al., 2020), and it is progressively developed by: a) applying the aforementioned methodology to flow-pressure data from the 78 Pressure Management Areas (PMAs) that consist Patras’ WDN, b) introducing proper procedures to standardize the MNF estimates and corresponding inlet/operating pressures obtained in (a) based on the specific characteristics of the network (length of the pipeline grid and intensity of altimetry, average diameter and elevation along the pipeline, density of individual consumer connections etc.), and c) using the results from (b) to develop parametric expressions that allow for confidence interval estimation of real losses as a function of the inlet/operating pressures, and the topographic and geometric characteristics of the network.

The developed framework is validated through flow-pressure tests conducted by the Municipal Enterprise of Water Supply and Sewerage of the City of Patras for each of the 78 PMAs of the network, indicating that the developed framework can be effectively used to improve water loss estimation and flow-pressure management in fundamentally different PMAs, based on their specific topographic, hydraulic, and geometric characteristics.

Probabilistic Modeling and Uncertainty Parameterization of Real Losses in the Water Distribution Network of the City of Patras in Western Greece

Created in 1999, the Environmental & Water Resources Institute (EWRI) is the recognized leader within ASCE for the integration of technical expertise and public policy in the planning, design, construction, and operation of environmentally sound and sustainable infrastructure impacting air, land and water resources.

[Paper Proceedings](https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483466)

Conference DOI: https://doi.org/10.26226/m.6329c39b68fb0e00131f77d2